Who Invests In Hardware Startups?

 
While many angels and VCs are still skittish abouthardware startups, there has been a massive renaissance in the hardware-funding ecosystem over the last few years. Since 2010, venture capital investment in hardware startups is up more than 30x.
Hardware Startup Investment by Year
Hardware/connected device companies who have publicly raised $1M or more from institutional VCs or angels.
With this explosion in hardware funding, one of the questions we get all the time is, “Who else is investing in hardware?” We generally think about private hardware investors in three buckets:
  • Hardware-only VCs. There are a few small funds (like ourselves) that work only withhardware companies. We’re usually first money in and can follow-on but not lead futureinvestment rounds.
  • Hardware-friendly micro VCs. There are also a number of other micro VCs who invest at the seed stage but aren’t focused on hardware exclusively. They generally manage less than $100 million, invest $50,000–500,000 and fill out seed rounds, but often don’t lead.
  • Hardware-friendly traditional VCs. Generally, most capital in hardwareinvestment consists of traditional VCs, with a few being particularly active. This is especially true for consumer hardware companies.

Where Is All This Activity?

The number of funded, connected hardware startups in the Bay Area (who have publicly raised $1 million or more) currently sits around 110 by my count. Boston and NYC (which are about equal) are one-third of that. Los Angeles and Boulder/Denver are one-third again of Boston and NYC. By aggregate dollars raised, however, San Francisco completely dominates; it was almost 5x Boston in 2014 and more than 10x NYC and Boulder. Everywhere else (including internationally) is a rounding error with a few very notable exceptions (Xiaomi, DJI and Magic Leap, in particular).
Hardware startup investment by region

Why Now?

Three main dynamics have been driving private investors to seek hardware companies.
Strong Exits
Consumer Hardware Startups
A few breakout companies have paved the way in proving that hardware companies can be tremendously profitable. Distribution and manufacturing are still hard, but GoPro and Fitbit have shown that hardware can have stronger growth metrics and outcomes than their software-only counterparts.
SaaS-Like Metrics
While traditional hardware companies have few feedback loops besides revenue and returns, connected hardware startups get constant feedback on product usage, retention and churn. This speeds up iteration cycles and helps investors (who are already comfortable with SaaS) understand younger hardware companies without as much sales traction.
Hardware + Software = Less Commoditization
Most hardware products struggle with commoditization and low margins over time. Today’s connected hardware products are often a Trojan horse for software. Software that is harder to replicate can increase switching costs and provide more opportunities to interact with customers and build brand. The upshot is a higher customer lifetime value, either explicitly through recurring revenue (Dropcam) or consumables (Kindle).
While the past few years have been banner years for venture capital investment, the connected hardware ecosystem has seen particularly explosive growth in both the number ofstartups and the receptiveness of VCs to funding them. This is driven by decreased development costs, shorter times to market and a shift in hardware business models away from commoditized consumer electronics to recurring revenue and software services. 
This year is on track to surpass 2014 in both number of funding rounds and aggregateinvestment, although growth is leveling off as a number of hardware categories become saturated and the ecosystem figures out who the winners are. As the hardware community evolves, there are a number of sectors where we’d love to see more hardware startupsworking.

Building Smart City Security


As urbanization intensifies and public sector technology initiatives advance quickly, the once-futuristic promise of “smart cities” is coming to fruition.
Cities have always been “smart” to a degree, using technology to boost the productivity and efficiency of municipal services. But today, the proliferation of digital connectivity and big data explosion are creating new opportunities for beneficial smart-city projects across a range of sectors.
According to the UN, just over half of the world’s people live in urban areas; it is projected that two-thirds of the global population will be city dwellers by 2050, amounting to an urban influx of 2.5 billion people in the next few decades.
The speed and stability with which our cities optimize for efficiency, sustainability and safety will broadly impact quality of life issues around the world. Information and communications technology, including demographic analytics, the Internet of Things (IoT) and cyber-physical infrastructure, will obviously play a central role.
Unfortunately, connectivity and data factors also bring risks, including breaches of personal information, disruption to critical infrastructure and damaged public trust. While a failure of internal systems is a relatively private misfortune, a failure between interconnected sectors presents risks of a much larger magnitude.
The fallout of disruption can extend to cascading failures, wherein highly interconnected entities rapidly transmit adverse consequences to each other. It’s no easy task to invest in information security while creating a sustainable urban environment, but this is the challenge we face as digital connectivity and data-driven services become tightly woven into the fabric of smart cities.

Balance Risk And Reward

As urbanization continues and smart cities evolve, it is becoming harder for organizations to find the optimum balance between commercial risk and reward. Interconnection and interdependence intensify and enable new capabilities, and data proliferates, offering up important insights. It’s easy to identify the benefits, but many risks remain opaque.
A city that is truly “smart” should operate for the benefit of everyone.
Products and services are deployed with security that may be adequate in isolation, yet becomes lamentably weak when connected to other systems. This makes it difficult to measure and mitigate risks, such as contagion in financial markets, loss of public confidence or disruption to infrastructure.
Commercial and public organizations alike are faced with constant changes and a lack of clarity regarding information security standards, governance and legal responsibilities, leaving them unsure how to proceed with major development programs.
As ethical questions arise regarding smart cities, organizations must make new considerations. It may be legally permissible for organizations to collect personal data from smartphones that connect to free wireless access points, but have they considered the perception and repercussions of such activity if it were disclosed publicly?
For example, complex or lengthy end-user license agreements may allow an organization to sell highly sensitive medical data to third-parties, but has the individual truly given informed consent for these actions? This debate is moving steadily into the public policy arena, as the European Union (EU) is now scrutinizing the privacy practices of major technology companies such as Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Google.
In the absence of even vaguely defined smart-city parameters, organizations must keep up-to-date on emerging privacy norms and remain wary of those who offer quick and easy solutions.
Risk managers must prepare in advance by regularly reviewing smart-city products and services, and promptly identify any changes to the organization’s network profile. They will have to monitor continuously for unidentified devices, sensors or other communications capability being added to their network without proper vetting and permissions.

Prioritize Data Security

Smart cities are heavily dependent on gathering and processing data in real time in order to increase service efficiency and improve situational awareness. This data is valuable — in many instances more valuable than the networks it transits — particularly because it can be used to support commercial activity such as targeted advertising or more efficient service delivery.
To gain the maximum value from this data, several thresholds must be met, including:
  • Trusting the confidentiality and integrity of the data so that commercial decisions can be made with confidence.
  • Trusting the integrity and availability of the data to control a physical environment in a safe, reliable way.
  • Establishing and maintaining public confidence in those who process the data and use it for decision making and service delivery.
To achieve these goals, at least two challenges must be overcome. The first is managing the torrent of data generated by people, devices and sensors. Data is the oil that lubricates smart cities; securing this data is a high priority. Accidents and misuse will have significant ramifications in an environment where infrastructure sectors are so closely interconnected that disruption can spread quickly and unpredictably.
The second challenge is to use big-data analytics effectively. Analytics infer patterns and make predictions through aggregation and analysis of large and often disparate data sets.
A purely reactive stance will be less permissible as societal awareness of the value of data grows and the reputational and regulatory consequences of data breaches increase.
Big-data analytics have the potential to open new windows of insight into human behavior and complex system interactions, capabilities that will be increasingly crucial as smart cities become more widespread. From a security perspective, guaranteeing the integrity of this data will be critical to conducting commercial and municipal activities with confidence.
Retaining public trust will remain a high priority. Because of the emerging methods for collecting, aggregating, analyzing and exchanging data, individuals will find it difficult to maintain privacy.
Moreover, it is hard to rectify breaches of personal privacy; once personal data is in the hands of cyber criminals, it is beyond reach. As consumers and citizens become more aware of privacy and security issues, there is growing public demand for protection from unauthorized corporate and government data use.
This demand is happening in parallel with a change of perspectives regarding data. Organizations have long realized the value of personal data, but many individuals are starting to realize it, as well. Governments and regulators are pressing organizations to consider data security and privacy.
For example, in response to sustained popular demand in the EU, the forthcoming EU General Data Protection Regulation will introduce sweeping changes to the way organizations handle the personal data of EU citizens. Similar regulations are emerging in the U.S. at the state government level.
In general, regulations related to personally identifiable information (PII) are becoming more stringent; investment in smart cities must account for these changes. Organizations will be required to make data security a higher priority and to document plans for implementing safeguards. A purely reactive stance will be less permissible as societal awareness of the value of data grows and the reputational and regulatory consequences of data breaches increase.

Maintain Safety, Reliability And Availability

As digital interconnection evolves in smart cities, there will be a corresponding need to devote attention to the safety, reliability and availability of cyber-physical systems (CPS) and other critical network components.
These systems provide new functionality that can improve quality of life and enable technological advances in critical areas, such as personalized health care, emergency response, traffic-flow management, smart manufacturing, homeland security and energy supply management.
Organizations that own, operate or rely on CPS in their supply chain should be aware of the deepening dependence on these systems —  and the importance of maintaining their safety, stability and availability. This dependence is not trivial, given that many CPS are part of critical infrastructure systems.
For example, the Global Positioning System (GPS) underpins many systems, and also provides essential timing and navigation services. Loss or degradation of GPS would have a major impact on key sectors, including telecoms, transport, energy and financial services.
Improvements in miniaturization and processing power, as well as increased bandwidth from service providers, mean CPS can interact with or be controlled by devices that are smaller and more remote. Some of the control will be done via the IoT. Many of these “things” can not only measure temperature, altitude, location and power output, but also activate switches, valves and other elements of CPS.
Clearly, there must be a strong public safety component in all smart-city developments, a perspective not often discussed in information security. CPS go beyond merely measuring the environment — indeed we are moving beyond IT systems that reflect the virtual world to systems that directly influence the physical environment.
We are moving beyond IT systems that reflect the virtual world to systems that directly influence the physical environment.
This paradigm shift from passive to active systems creates safety implications for individuals and communities that interact with and rely on them. CPS have existed for some time, but the growth of smart cities will increase their prevalence. Failure to secure them adequately could adversely affect public safety and result in widespread disruption, especially in densely populated urban areas.
Many information security controls for CPS will be the same as we see with traditional IT systems, but there will be notable differences that must be identified and addressed. As securing highly interconnected systems becomes more challenging, the importance of resilience will be recognized more extensively.
It will be crucial to invest in “bouncing back” after an incident, in order to mitigate the uncertainty of depending on numerous and widely distributed supply chain partners. CPS will be a high priority target for investment in resilience and incident-response planning, given their centrality to smart cities.

Next Steps

Burgeoning experimentation with smart-city capabilities means new use cases will develop, uncovering new opportunities and challenges for organizations and individual citizens. This is an evolutionary process, one which will never be truly finished.
Along the way there will certainly be inflection points where change happens more rapidly and security becomes a higher priority. The next few years will see the rapid growth of smart cities, and organizations will benefit from beginning their strategic planning and prioritization now in order to fully realize the economic, social and environmental benefits.
Balance Risk And Reward
  • Public perception, along with the ethics of data collection and analysis, will begin to play a more prominent role in discussions about smart cities. Consideration must be given not only to the actions being taken, but also to how they will be perceived.
  • Given the rapid rate of change in smart cities, there is a need to conduct regular risk assessments to identify areas where an organization’s risk profile may have changed more rapidly than desired.
Prioritize Data Security
  • Assure the origin of data and decisions made from this data in order to conduct commercial activities with confidence and avoid incidents that could adversely affect customers.
  • Agree on an incident-response plan in order to avoid a reactive posture when something goes wrong. Regulators and insurers will be watching more closely.
Maintain Safety, Reliability And Availability
  • As a result of growing digital interdependency, and the uncertainty it introduces, many sectors will have to prioritize resilience instead of relying solely on technical controls.
  • Attention should be given to the IT policies and standards updates that may be necessary to accommodate CPS and IoT.
  • Because of CPS, public safety will become part of the technology debate around smart cities. Regulation and legislation will not be far behind, and organizations should prepare to influence this discussion.

The Time To Prepare Is Now

Smart cities are more than hype. They are happening and will transform many sectors. It is important to prepare, but proceed with caution. A good degree of uncertainty remains regarding privacy issues, the effects of interdependency, the impact of IoT and other challenges that will no doubt emerge as smart cities become the standard.
Whilst the unknowns loom large, translating into risk for early adopters, a city that is truly “smart” should operate for the benefit of everyone, offering efficiency, opportunity, security and progress for a majority of the world’s population. Achieving these goals is one of the smart city’s biggest challenges.

Amazon To Answer Apple With New Fire TV


Don’t call it a hobby. Amazon is serious about its living room aspirations and is about to launch a second-generation Fire TV media receiver. The company launched the original Fire TV a year-and-a-half ago, and it includes a similar feature set as the newly revamped Apple TV. From voice search to apps to games, the original Fire TV packs a punch, and the new one seems to be even stronger.
The company’s upcoming device was recently uncovered by Dave Zatz, who found the device listed on the FCC website under a shell name. A new microSD card slot is listed in the documentation along with 802.11ac, Bluetooth 4.1 connectivity, an ethernet port and USB port. But hardware specs doesn’t sell gadgets alone.
At this point it’s unclear if the new Fire TV packs an updated interface or renewed focus on gaming — both of which are needed to properly stand tall against the new Apple TV. And as Dave Zatz points out, 4k output, which could be a killer feature for some, is still up in the air.
Chances are good that the company is gearing up to launch this new model very soon. Amazon generally unveils new hardware in early fall, and Amazon currently lists the original Fire TV as unavailable.

Microsoft Announces Office 2016 Will Arrive September 22


Microsoft announced this morning the official launch date for the long-anticipated new version of Microsoft Office. Office 2016 will be broadly available starting on September 22, the company says. Meanwhile, Office Customers with volume licensing agreements will be able to download the software on October 1.
The updated version of Office includes a number of new features for desktop customers, including the ability to co-edit documents at the same time, sync files to OneDrive in the cloud, and more.
Alongside the announcement of the launch date, Microsoft noted a few other new features and options for IT admins and businesses looking to deploy the software.
For starters, the company noted that Office 365 ProPlus customers who are paying for the subscription version of Office for companies, will also receive the “Current Branch” – meaning the most up-to-date feature release and security updates – on September 22. This release will also include the new Office 2106 app updates.
But based on customer feedback, Microsoft says it’s introducing a new update model called “Current Branch for Business,” which will offer three cumulative feature updates per year, while continuing to offer monthly security updates. This is designed for organizations that want to test new releases of Office 2016 before rolling out the new features, a Microsoft blog post explains.
The company says it’s also addressing other Office 365 ProPlus IT requests with this release, including deployment through Background Intelligent Transfer Service (BITS) to help control network traffic when deploying updates, as well as the introduction of new reports on Office activation and usage. Plus, Office 2016 is getting support for Data Loss PreventionMulti-factor Authentication and more.
Microsoft is continuing to embrace a cross-platform approach with its new Office software. Office 2016 for Mac was previously released in July, initially to Office365 subscribers. At the time, the company said that the standalone version would not arrive until September, which offered a hint that the Office 2106 launch would arrive this month.
In addition, news of the September Office 2016 launch follows the company’s announcement from yesterday that Microsoft has developed new features for Word, Excel, PowerPoint, OneNote, Outlook and Translator which are designed to take advantage of enhancements on Apple’s new iPad Pro, new mobile OS iOS 9, and its Watch software, watchOS 2. Specifically, the company is updating Office with support for things like Apple Pencil, Slide Over and Split View multi-tasking, among other things.

Instagram Ads Go Global, Including New 30-Second Commercials

Instagram is done experimenting and is ready to ramp up ad revenue. It’s making three big changes today to attract marketing dollars from around the world and other ad mediums. Finally, Instagram will make back the money Facebook spent buying it.
MarvelChamp.Kabam.IG.SeptemberFirst, today Instagram ads become officially available in 30 more countries including Mexico, India and South Korea, and will be on sale globally by the end of September. After users in core markets proved loyal despite having ads injected in their feeds, all 300 million people who use Instagram will now see ads. And instead of only working with big brands, Instagram is opening up ads to businesses of all sizes.
Second, Instagram is now courting television and online advertisers with more standardized formats and buying options. Instagram will allow advertisers to run 30-second video ads, rather than just 15 second ones, and use landscape dimensions instead of just squares. Landscape and portrait mode came to users last month, though Instagram’s James Quarles told me it wouldn’t be technically feasible to expand the video length limit to 30 seconds for non-advertisers. This means businesses can easily port their television commercials into Instagram ads.
Instagram is also debuting a new buying option called Marquee that lets advertisers “own a moment” and reach a huge swath of the user base quickly. This is ideal for big product launches or movie releases where brands want big first-day sales. FOX will run the first marquee for its new TV shows, including Scream Queens, seen above.
And third, Instagram is luring advertisers from a wider array of industries to its ads with improved calls to action. These include travel, entertainment, ecommerce, and retail. After testing “Shop Now”, “Install Now”, “Sign Up”, and “Learn More” options, these direct response formats that can link outside of Instagram will open to all advertisers.
Commerce and app install ads will make the photo network more valuable to merchants and developers who want an immediate return on investment. All these formats and placements will now be available through Facebook’s self-serve ad interface, Ads API, and Power Editor, which allow extremely granular interest and demographic targeting.
Fox Marquee
To prove the ads work, Instagram cites some examples:
  • Gilt Group’s campaign drove an 85% increase in app installs
  • Furniture retailer Made.com saw a 10% increase in order value versus its benchmark
  • Game developer Kabam was able to acquire users who played longer and spent more

Facebook’s Acquisition Comes To Fruition

Really, this was the moment Facebook was imagining when it acquired Instagram. Of course it wanted to continue connecting people through photos the way it did with its social network. But on the business side, Instagram held the promise of applying Facebook’s advertising technology and connections with brands to another massive audience. It took three and a half years, but that moment has finally arrived.
Instagram’s Quarles tells me “it would take us years to build that advertising stack on our own.”
It comes down to scale.
Instagram Ads
Advertisers, and in turn, investors, want scale. Facebook already has a ton of it with its nearly 1.5 billion users. Instagram adds another 300 million. This is the scale Wall Street desperately wants Twitter to achieve.
Now, when an advertiser wants to reach a huge audience, all they need is to buy through Facebook and they can push an ad to people on both Facebook and Instagram. With that scale comes efficiencies in sales and backend infrastructure. Each extra dollar earned costs Facebook less.
Now all Instagram has to do is not show so many ads that users get annoyed, change so much that they feel lost, or stay so stagnant that the app gets stale. As long as Instagram doesn’t lose its cool, it will become a massive money-making machine worthy of mention on Facebook’s earnings calls.
Instagram favored growth for its first five years. Now it’s all grown up and ready to be a bread-winner.

Adblock Plus Finally Lands On iOS And In Google Play — As A Browser App

Popular desktop ad-blocking software Adblock Plus, which has some 50 million+ monthly active users worldwide, has finally launched an iOS app. It’s also managed to convince Google to allow its ad-blocking browser for Android back in the Play Store, noting that this is the first time since March 2013 it’s been allowed in the Google-controlled Android app store.
Speaking to TechCrunch back in July, ABP’s head of ops, Ben Williams, said the company was planning to launch an Adblock Plus browser for iOS in “early fall/late summer”. So they’re spot on in their timing.
Clearly the company was eager to get its app live before the widespread availability of iOS 9 — which introduces a content blocking feature to the platform that will enable developers to more easily create ad blockers and other content blockers for the platform, spawning more competition for Adblock Plus. (But arguably also raising mobile users’ awareness about ad-blockers as a general category — ABP dubs the move “a big step for this industry” in a statement today.)
While ABP has built a successful business on the desktop, the switch to mobile computing is more of an implementation challenge. In the case of its approach with these browser apps, it’s having to rely on users downloading and using a dedicated browser for ad-blocking — rather than being able to work as an extension on the native browsers (a route that’s blocked to it for now).
APB’s Android browser app has been in beta since May, and it says more than 300,000 people have downloaded it since then to kick the tyres. Having the app in the Play Store will of course enhance its visibility and discoverability.  (ABP has previously described its software as “practically invisible to the vast majority of mobile users” thanks to being ejected from Google’s app playground.)
It’s an interesting shift on Google’s part — but likely Mountain View’s hand is being forced here by Apple’s own move to clear a path for iOS users to more easily choose what types of content they do and don’t want to see by giving developers a web content blocking tool.
The wider point here is that mobile data can be costly, so sites larded with ads are not only annoying users by slowing down page loads times, but may also actively be costing them money by gobbling up their data allowance. Not to mention the other big issue here: hugely invasive tracking and ad-targeting technologies that are being increasingly deployed by advertisers.
Adblock Plus is very excited and grateful to have our app, Adblock Browser for Android, available in the Google Play Store,” noted Till Faida, co-founder of Adblock Plus, in a statement, without elaborating on exactly how that feat was achieved.
ABP claims its Android and iOS browsers offer safer, more private, faster and more efficient browsing. It also touts reduced battery drain as an added benefit of blocking ads while browsing, along with claims of a reduced risk of malware infection.
But what about online publishers’ business models if everyone starts blocking ads? ABP notes that its browsers let users support websites by whitelisting them (and thus their ads). So publishers can appeal to their users to whitelist their ads, and/or improve the quality of their ads to make them less irritating.
Other controls offered to users of the ABP browsers include the ability to add additional filter lists, to customize the content that’s blocked, and change the default setting to block all ads — i.e. opting out of ABP’s own whitelisted ads (which it calls ‘acceptable ads’).
On iOS the company is also touting an “intuitive tab functionality” (vs Safari’s accordion style) and easier bookmarking, as well as claiming scrolling is smoother. Plus it’s tweaked the keyboard layout with an eye on browsing convenience, such as putting a .com button in pride of place.
A quick roadtest of the browser on iOS appears to confirm small speed enhancements when loading websites via the ABP browser vs standard Safari (and of course no annoying pop-ups), however the app also crashed during this test so it looks like there are a few teething stability issues for ABP to iron out.

Why Southeast Asia Is Leading The World’s Most Disruptive Mobile Business Models

Earlier this summer, more than 35,000 industry leaders gathered at Mobile World Congress Shanghai 2015 to discuss the future of mobile, making it the largest-ever mobile-focused event in Asia. Whereas the majority of the conference focused on new technologies such as 5G and Internet of Things, I was joined by peers from Netflix, Line, Ola Cabs, Flipkart and Twitter to discuss future business models for the mobile Internet.
Most of this discussion steered toward China and India, but I was there to focus on Southeast Asia. This perspective (or some would say, bias) isn’t just because my company operates in Southeast Asia, but rather is because of our $16 million dollar bet that innovation and disruption in mobile will be coming out of Southeast Asia far faster than other regions, such as the U.S., China and Japan, as expected.
Why? I will argue below that Southeast Asia is at the crossroads of two major socio-technical forces that are creating a perfect storm scenario: the convergence of “no-tail” and “mobile leapfrogging.”

No-Tail: Southeast Asia Jumped Straight Into Web 2.0 And Commerce Will Outlive Ad-Driven Business Models

Remember the early millennial heyday of GeoCities homepages, and later the evolution to self-publishing/blogging, user-generated content? That glorious era of Web 1.0 and, more importantly, Web 1.5 in Western markets was what gave birth to a monolithic monetization model around ad networks like Google AdSense and premium ad networks through anecosystem of “long-tail” publisher content on platforms such as Blogger.com, MovableType and WordPress.
But in Southeast Asia, the Internet took off a bit later than its Western counterparts, when a tiny little site like Facebook was already most Asian Internet users’ first online experience — the end of the Web 2.0 wave, which hit Thailand in 2007 when Internet penetration crossed the 20 percent mark.
We use Thailand as a proxy for Southeast Asia because the country is the most developed one in the region (excluding Singapore/Malaysia) and, unlike Singapore/Malaysia, most VCstend to agree that the trends and lessons learned in Thailand apply across the rest of the region, especially in upcoming major markets such as Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam.
If you compare Internet penetration data from the U.S. and Thailand, you’ll notice that the U.S. went through the Web 1.0 and Web 1.5 booms while having significant double-digit Internet adoption rates of 36 percent and 61 percent, respectively. In Thailand, this number was in the dismal single digits during the same periods. It wasn’t until Web 2.0, around 2007, that Thailand started to see Internet adoption take off rapidly, significantly contributing to the growth of national GDP and e-commerce.
image-0009 Coming to the Internet party late resulted in user-generated content creation going straight onto closed social media systems such as Facebook, Instagram and Twitter — in effect, what marketers languished calling a “no-tail” landscape with lack of quality long-tail publisher inventory.

Because of the lack of this long-tail in Southeast Asia, the online advertising industry has lagged behind, forcing both established firms and startups to look for non-advertising-based monetization sources. Enter e-commerce and digital goods.

From Traditional Ad-Driven Monetization Toward Hybrid And Commerce-Driven Business Models

One of the more interesting effects of “no-tail” is the accelerated development and proliferation of unique and Asia-specific business models. This is where the Asian culture and ecosystem meets local ingenuity and entrepreneurship. Whereas startups and Internet companies in the U.S. have a tendency to go with advertising as their default monetization strategy — see Pinterest (Promoted Pins), Instagram (Carousel Ads) and recently Snapchat(“Vertical, Video, Views”) — Asian businesses in our space have had to look elsewhere to make money.
China’s Tencent is the poster child of this. The company generates more than 80 percent of their revenue from VAS (value added services, mainly virtual goods) and e-commerce. Less than 10 percent of their revenue is from selling banner ads and search keywords. Another example is Mogujie, a female-focused social shopping site that raised more than $200 million before being acquired by Alibaba. Mogujie started as a Chinese Pinterest clone, but quickly pivoted into e-commerce and social shopping. Unlike Pinterest, who makes money off “Promoted Pins,” Mogujie struggled to monetize through advertising and had to move into e-commerce to survive.
image-0019
The same thing is happening in Southeast Asia as it follows a similar path as China because of similar ecosystems. Publishers are seeking help to monetize through e-commerce because they struggle making money from selling ads through ad networks. For example, based on average Thai RPMs (revenue per 1,000 impressions/page views), a popular local vertical publisher like Cosmenet.in.th will only make $350 per month based on page view numbers from SimilarWeb. This isn’t even enough to cover hosting fees, which is why it’s not surprising that these publishers are looking for non-traditional monetization channels such as e-commerce.

Mobile Leapfrogging: Southeast Asia Is “Mobile-First” —  How This Will Be The Breeding Ground Of Future Business Models

Everyone talks about how China and India are going to be the next big thing in mobile, which is not surprising because of how massive those markets are. However, if you normalize the numbers and look at mobile phone and mobile Internet adoption rates, Southeast Asia is actually the more interesting case.

The Average Thai User Has 1.4 Mobile Phones

Mobile phone adoption has skyrocketed in the recent years in Thailand with the latest numbers outpacing the U.S. and China in terms of mobile cell phone penetration. Unburdened by a desktop Internet legacy and driven by ever lower costs of smartphone manufacturing, cell phone adoption in Thailand has accelerated to a point where the average Thai person has 1.4 mobile phones, or 140 percent adoption. Compare this to the U.S. and China, which are “only” seeing 91 percent and 77 percent adoption rates, respectively.
image-0012

Mobile Leapfrogging: Thailand Has Surpassed The U.S. And China in Mobile Internet Penetration In Less Than One Year After Introducing 3G

Mobile Internet penetration in Thailand has jumped from a mere 1 percent in 2009 to a whopping 56 percent in 2013, with the bulk of the growth coming right after the country’s official 3G launch in early 2013. Mobile Internet adoption in Thailand beats mature markets such as the U.S. and China, which stand at 40 percent and 34 percent, respectively.
image-0013
Another way of looking at this is by analyzing the percentage of mobile Internet users out of total Internet users. For Thailand, this number is 139 percent, meaning that Thailand has more mobile phones connected to the Internet than there are Internet users. Thailand pummels the U.S. and China, whose numbers are 47 percent and 75 percent, respectively.
image-0014
Companies in Southeast Asia are noticing this trend and are quickly adapting to it. For example, Lazada now gets more than 50 percent of their traffic from mobile channels after making app development a priority. They’re also one of the first e-commerce players in Southeast Asia that launched both their iOS and Android apps. MatahariMall, Lippo Group’s new e-commerce venture, started with their mobile website and worked backward to create their desktop experience. Others, such as SaleStock, a fast-growing fast-fashion e-commerce site in Indonesia, are foregoing desktop completely and only provide a mobile, albeit non-native, shopping user interface.

The Perfect Storm: No-Tail Meets Mobile Leapfrogging — A Peek At The Future Of Mobile Business Models In Southeast Asia

At the crossroads of “no-tail” and “mobile leapfrogging” we can expect to see a melting pot of new and unique mobile business models to Southeast Asia.

C2C Models: The Six Steps To Quick Social Commerce In Southeast Asia

One interesting, and uniquely Southeast Asian, phenomenon is “shadow marketplaces.” Because of the two forces in play — high mobile penetration and content creation concentrated on social media platforms — there’s been a rise of informal C2C e-commerce on social media, such as Instagram, Facebook and Line. These are not your small mom-and-pop stores that sell bits and pieces here and there — an estimated and whopping one-third of total Thai e-commerce GMV comes from transactions happening on these shadow marketplaces.
This is how it works: Merchants feature their products on Instagram and the transaction is completed via Line messaging, the most popular chat app in Thailand:
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This may seem very low-tech to many of us who are used to more “advanced” and seamless e-commerce shopping on platforms such as Amazon and Tmall, but the societal and economical impact it has on e-commerce in Southeast Asia cannot be ignored.

B2C Models

At the Mobile World Congress panel, I shared the stage with Hanna Lee from Line Corp. She’s the GM for Line’s China and Hong Kong business. Hanna showed Line’s evolution from a messaging app to a total media solution covering digital goods, music and video. In Southeast Asia, realizing the shift toward mobile commerce, the same company has launched several pilot projects to tap into e-commerce monetization, most notably Line Flash Sale, Line Hot Deal and Line Groceries.
Line Groceries launched first in Thailand because it’s Line’s second-biggest market outside of Japan, with more than 29 million users out of a total 600+ million users. This is proof that big players like Line are foregoing launching in their largest markets, like Japan, and jumping straight into the most fertile grounds for testing new and innovative business models.
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B2B2C Models

We’ve recently seen players like Pinterest, Facebook and Google going aggressively into e-commerce for monetization. Earlier last month, Google announced “Purchases on Google”enabling buy buttons on mobile. The same day, Facebook started testing digital stores with a buy button for Facebook Pages, joining the ranks of Twitter, Instagram and Pinterest who ventured into buy buttons in the months prior. All these firms are looking into e-commerce as an additional, albeit lucrative, revenue stream.
However, in Southeast Asia, this may not be a luxury feature compared to mature markets like the U.S. and Europe. Instead, enabling e-commerce through buy buttons may be a necessity, and even a survival mechanism, because the market, as we argued before, is commerce-driven, not ad-driven. Also, given the perfect match of supply and demand in Southeast Asia as we’ve seen in the shadow markets case, we expect adoption of buy buttons to be much faster here.
Given the plethora of established e-commerce platforms available, even in an emerging market like Southeast Asia, one would wonder why Google and Facebook enabling e-commerce is such a big deal. A quick look at actual mobile behavior in a market like Thailand helps us connect the dots. Below is an image that shows two mobile phone home screens of a Thai high school student.
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Screen one, on the left, shows social media and chat apps like Instagram, Facebook and Line, in addition to a folder dedicated to games. The other screen shows nothing but camera apps.
Three interesting observations can be made here:
  • There’s no Google. Despite Google’s recent massive numbers, as well as media newly proclaiming that mobile isn’t ruining Google’s search business at all, it would be interesting to see these numbers broken down by market, especially Asia and specifically Southeast Asia. Blending numbers and behavior across markets doesn’t reveal the true impact of a “mobile-first” or “mobile-only” market like Southeast Asia. Don’t get me wrong — Google Search is here to stay, even on mobile. However, its impact will be less prominent in our mobile age. As a MediaPost commentary points out: “In a sense, then, the rise of mobile means that — in some cases — search engines are being leapfrogged; we’re going directly to familiar, popular or mobile-friendly channels without visiting a search engine first.”
  • There’s no YouTube. Video is moving to Instagram, Facebook and messaging apps like Line. Facebook now has more than 3 billion video views per day. And Line recently launched a YouTube-like video service in — where else but — Thailand. Line picked Thailand over its biggest market (Japan) for this launch because Thailand, not Japan, is a truly mobile-first market.
  • There are no commerce apps. Granted, this is an 18-year old high school student in an emerging market, but as soon as habits are formed, they are very hard to change. Also, as discussed earlier, there may not be a need for commerce apps at all as Instagram, Line and Facebook already are becoming the de facto commerce platforms in Southeast Asia. Facebook, Instagram and Twitter officially going into buy buttons will only reinforce this, especially in this region. This phenomenon with the next generation will pose a major challenge to established e-commerce retailers and platforms in Southeast Asia, given how dominant Facebook, Instagram, Line and Twitter are in this region.

Conclusion

Driven by two unique forces, “no-tail” and “mobile leapfrogging,” Southeast Asia is in a special position to be the melting pot for new mobile business models. Stop looking at the U.S., China or even Korea/Japan for inspiration for the future of mobile, because it is not happening there. Ironically, mature and developed markets carry the heavy legacy of the desktop Internet era, whereas Southeast Asia started with a clean slate, allowing the latter to be in a unique position to experiment and develop new business models on mobile, primarily driven by commerce.
View or download my Mobile World Congress Shanghai 2015 presentation –Commerce + Mobile: Evolution of New Business Models in Southeast Asia